Deals don’t fail on closing day, they fail in the spreadsheet. We open the hood on how we actually underwrite Northwest Arkansas real estate right now, cutting through hype and focusing on decisions that protect cash flow and sleep. From rent comps in Fayetteville, Springdale, Rogers, and Bentonville to the new wave of A‑class concessions, we map the reality on the ground: tight vacancies in key unit types, steady absorption, and slower rent growth that rewards disciplined assumptions over wishful thinking.

We start with the essentials, pulling a clean T12, validating the rent roll, and running a true market survey within one to three miles, bracketed by vintage and finish. Then we show how to phase rent increases over 6–12 months based on lease expirations and planned upgrades, instead of flipping to “market” on day one. On expenses, we get specific: model insurance with live quotes, assume 30–50% tax resets post-sale, add professional management even if you plan to self-manage, and fund maintenance and CapEx reserves for roofs, HVAC, plumbing, and turns. No more 30% expense ratios inherited from mom-and-pop books.

We also break down DSCR in plain English and why lenders look for 1.20–1.25 at stabilization, plus how to stress test interest rates, lease-up speed, and concessions. For exits, we model cap rate expansion, not compression, and tie sale timing to the business plan. Along the way, we highlight the most common mistakes, understating expenses, overstating rent growth, and betting on an aggressive exit, and how to avoid them with simple, repeatable checks. If you want deals that work at today’s numbers and get better with execution, this framework will help you separate signal from noise in a fast-growing, maturing NWA market.

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